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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Michigan has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

20×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Michigan: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.92.03.9
20273.02.03.9
20283.02.14.0
20293.12.14.0
20303.12.24.1

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cathro3320161989
Deckerville2020241995
Galesburg1920241997
Pickford1920251994
Chippewa Lk.1320251992
Cunard1220211990
New Buffalo1220141993
Bootjack1020222012
Walloon Lake1019931990
Monterey920241983
Harrietta920251991
Barry S.G.A. 2920192014
Crystal Fls820252004
New Troy820242011
Skegemog Pt820251991
St Charles820192010
Remus620251989
Mottville620252002
Holt620252000
Hamburg 2620252014
Bear Lake520231990
Lawrence520252002
Raco520242013
Bell Oak520141998
Adrian520172011

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.