BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Michigan has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

19×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Michigan: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Michigan is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.1–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Michigan is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.1–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.93.8
20262.91.93.8
20272.92.03.9
20283.02.03.9
20293.02.14.0

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cathro3320161989
Deckerville2020241995
Galesburg1920241997
Cohoctah1720242022
Holt1620242000
Nashville1520241988
Cunard1220211990
No Bradley1220241989
New Buffalo1220141993
Ned Lake1120242008
Pickford1120241994
Bootjack1020222012
Walloon Lake1019931990
Monterey920241983
Lapeer920242001
Barry S.G.A. 2920192014
New Troy820242011
St Charles820192010
Hamburg 2820242014
Sand Lake720241979
Skegemog Pt620241991
Bear Lake520231990
Big Blue Lk520242007
Remus520241989
Raco520242013

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.