BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Massachusetts has surged: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

34×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Massachusetts: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.13.4
20262.31.13.4
20272.31.23.5
20282.41.23.5
20292.41.33.6

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Dennis1020192013
Brockton1020192015
Belchertown520241999
N Orange520241993
Prattville420191999
Cape Cod Ns420072007
Wellfleet 2320242016
N. Andover320241995
Maynard220212017
Chesterfield220211995
Pittsfield220061985
Monterey220242019
Hancock219991999
Marion120242002
Ware River120191996
Newburyport120212000
Littleton120232001
N Oxford120192008
Mansfield120232006
Warren120062005
S Barre120242006
Cummington120132000
Cheshire119911982
Sheffield120221972
Gay Head120231996

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.