BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Iowa

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Iowa has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

13×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Iowa: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Iowa is projected to rise about 226% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.41–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±259.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+226%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±259.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Iowa is projected to rise about 226% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.41–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±259.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.312.2
20261.30.342.2
20271.30.362.2
20281.30.392.2
20291.30.412.3

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bedford720181992
Prairieburg520001993
Maquoketa420221988
Washta420141985
Bryant320222003
Hudson320061987
Lafayette320242003
West Liberty220242006
Neola220142005
Wales220182007
Zearing219891989
Clare220191990
Titonka219911991
Rock Valley220192017
Mt Hamill120231974
Exline120241985
Melrose120221986
Burchinal120242023
Cedar Valley119951995
Brooklyn120212005
Williamsburg120061990
Red Rock120132001
Panther120242010
Washington120111992
Alice119911991

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.