BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Montana has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+135%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Montana: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Montana is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.03–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Montana is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.03–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.000.95
20260.480.010.95
20270.490.020.96
20280.500.020.97
20290.500.030.98

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed Point1420241991
Victor920192006
Webster920242003
Bull Mtn.720211999
Lindsay620162016
Cabin Creek620232023
Brusett520232011
Ninemile420242001
Cleveland319941994
Highwood320222010
Woodman320241994
Two Dot320102009
Powderville320061980
Maynard Coulee320232017
Fish Creek320212006
Hehn Draw320212021
Kalispell220241985
Glen220132005
St Regis220211994
Arlee220112011
Albion220192016
Thompson Riv220212021
Clyde Park220242024
Threemile Wa120182018
Cramer Creek120182018

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.