BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Mississippi has surged: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+193%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Mississippi: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Mississippi is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.06–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Mississippi is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.06–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.040.97
20260.510.050.97
20270.520.050.98
20280.520.060.98
20290.530.060.99

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace North1420142009
Weir1020242008
Dundee920221979
Okatibbee L.620032003
Beverly520111977
Eagle Lake420232023
Delta N.F.320151995
Corinth320241996
Trace Central320162015
Trace Chickasaw320212012
Lake Mary219881988
Utica220161993
Lucien220081988
Fayette220131983
Duck Hill220241994
Trace Lorman220192016
Mt Carmel220131991
Cybur219891971
Neely220092000
Winterville220112009
Olive Branch 2220212021
Commerce119891968
Benton120231996
Tippo120242024
Tallahatchie120232018

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.