BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Arizona has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+171%Since 1971
20Routes In State
30Years

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Wild Turkey has surged in Arizona: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Arizona is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029
0.21Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5595% range
±41.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.210.000.54
20260.210.000.54
20270.210.000.54
20280.210.000.55
20290.210.000.55

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Arizona.
Alpine820222007
Pomerene520242016
Patagonia420242009
Williams420112011
Tonto Vill.420162016
Peña Blanca319991999
Mormon Lake219711968
Happy Jack220062002
Portal120241983
Flagstaff120062006
Sawmill120141995
Blue119811981
Dry Park120231993
Pinetop120172017
Redington120232022
Mt. Graham120222007
Mcneal120222022
Tsaile120231993
Sunizona 2120232010
Sprucedale120222000

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.