BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Arizona has surged: up 277% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+277%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Arizona: up 277% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Arizona is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 0.98 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Arizona is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 0.98 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.70
20270.280.000.70
20280.280.000.70
20290.290.000.71
20300.290.000.71

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patagonia1520252009
Alpine720252007
Williams420112011
Sprucedale420252000
Portal320251983
Pomerene320252016
Peña Blanca319991999
Tonto Vill.320252016
Mormon Lake219711968
Dry Park220251993
Flagstaff120062006
Sawmill120141995
Blue119811981
Pinetop120172017
Redington120252022
Mt. Graham120252007
Mcneal120222022
Tsaile120231993
Sunizona 2120232010
Happy Jack120252002

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.