BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Nebraska has surged: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

45×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Nebraska: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Nebraska is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.0–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Nebraska is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.0–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.65.5
20263.61.75.6
20273.71.85.6
20283.81.95.7
20293.92.05.8

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paxton1620161970
Gretna1420182000
Irvington1420242005
Gordon1120162002
Hendley1120232019
Table1020172004
Crawford920241982
Johnson820242002
Brady720241995
Bassett720232019
Brownlee620241994
Julian520231982
Surprise420242013
Petersburg420211988
Ringgold420241994
Murray Lake420222002
Sargent420242021
Red Cloud420242018
Hampton420242018
Kearney320241985
Arthur320242006
Mullen320231990
Nenzel320212021
Oglala Nat. Grass.320172002
Boelus320222022

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.