BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Texas has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+127%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Texas: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Texas is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.75–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Texas is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.75–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.681.9
20261.30.701.9
20271.30.721.9
20281.30.731.9
20291.30.751.9

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Pryor1519711971
Goliad Prairie1420162004
Rankin1020171972
Cottonwood920231979
Williams920242003
Cavasara Cr.919951995
Schroeder819961981
Hondo820241972
Raymondville820241976
Muldoon720152012
Henrietta720082005
Leakey720231994
Duran719991995
San Pedro720231996
Mirando City620242008
Campbellton620181985
Valley Spgs620241968
Rockspring620241994
Cayuga520172016
Shields520011999
Megargel520241996
Albany420211986
Olney420181979
Post420242016
Booker420231999

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.