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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Texas

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Texas has surged: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+207%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Texas: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.99 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.75–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.99 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.75–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.681.8
20271.30.701.9
20281.30.711.9
20291.30.731.9
20301.30.751.9

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leakey1720251994
La Pryor1519711971
Three Rivers1420251994
Goliad Prairie1420162004
Boerne1320251970
Haskell1320251995
Mirando City1220252008
George West1020252001
Rankin1020171972
San Saba920251971
Cavasara Cr.919951995
Schroeder819961981
Muldoon720152012
Hondo720251972
Henrietta720082005
Duran719991995
Campbellton620181985
Childress620251971
Fannin620251998
Valley Spgs520251968
Cayuga520172016
Shields520011999
Megargel520241996
Pear Valley420251973
Albany420211986

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.