BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in New York

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in New York has surged: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

27×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in New York: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New York is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New York is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.02.2
20271.61.12.2
20281.71.12.2
20291.71.12.3
20301.71.22.3

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Wild Turkey in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Horicon1320162009
Inlet1020172009
Oneida920101991
Mt Morris820251984
Highmarket620241996
Degrasse620252001
Crescent620241999
W Shokan520181983
Austerlitz520251988
Medusa520231979
Whitney Pt520221992
Pulaski520251994
Clinton520131995
Wanakena520252007
Sciota519981998
Westhampton420192014
Platte Cove420181991
Laurens420251996
Hopkinton420212006
Swain 2420212011
St Regis Fls420172000
Warwick 2420131999
Meridale320251979
Oriskany Fls320251989
Dryden320251993

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.