BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Kansas has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

26×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Kansas: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Kansas is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Kansas is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.15.8
20264.02.15.9
20274.12.26.0
20284.22.36.1
20294.32.46.2

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jewell1520051984
Dover1320221993
Wreford1320241988
Barclay820241990
Buckeye720231988
Covert720241986
Lincolnville720242002
Albert620181983
Leoville620151983
Ruleton620112002
Beloit 2620182008
Morehead620242000
Olsburg620242001
Jewell 2520242006
Hollenberg520221992
Logan520192005
Gray420191990
Grantville420221993
Dalton320161983
Kanopolis320231981
Seneca320222006
Minneapolis320191997
Ash Valley320182000
Lapland220222000
Coats220241975

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.