BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in California has surged: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

37×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in California: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in California is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.92–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in California is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.92–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.811.6
20261.20.831.7
20271.30.861.7
20281.30.891.7
20291.30.921.7

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Wild Turkey in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coalinga1420221995
Sisquoc1220141975
Creston1020212003
Tracy 21020242011
Gold Hill920241979
Oneals820231999
Tres Pinos 2820112005
Folsom720241987
Cal Hot Spgs720191997
Iron Gate720032001
Lockwood620221993
Copperopolis620241988
Paxton620142004
Bass Lake520052005
Mark West520241994
Glen Ellen 2520222005
Rumsey420081996
Morro Bay420192013
Point Reyes420221993
Navarro420111995
Jackson419921992
Poloma420241995
Wawona420232009
Strawberry420142014
Glen Ellen 3420242024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.