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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in California

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in California has surged: up 32× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

32×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey in California. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in California is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.91–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in California is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.91–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.811.6
20271.20.831.7
20281.30.861.7
20291.30.881.7
20301.30.911.7

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Wild Turkey in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coalinga1420221995
Gold Hill1420251979
Yolla Bolly1320251985
Sisquoc1220141975
Creston1020212003
Tracy 21020242011
Oneals820231999
Tres Pinos 2820112005
Cal Hot Spgs720191997
Iron Gate720032001
Folsom620251987
Carmel Val620251990
Lockwood620221993
Copperopolis620241988
Bass Lake520052005
Johnsville520252025
Moraga520252004
Glen Ellen 2520222005
Rumsey420081996
Morro Bay420192013
Point Reyes420221993
Navarro420111995
Jackson419921992
Laytonville420251995
Zamora420252008

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.