BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 487% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+487%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 487% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.90–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.90–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.792.5
20261.70.812.6
20271.70.842.6
20281.80.872.6
20291.80.902.7

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA292023
ArvadaWYOMING222024
WyarnoWYOMING192018
Reed PointMONTANA142024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA102024
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA102019
WebsterMONTANA92024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA92017
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
BucknumWYOMING92005
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA82024
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA82012
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA82022
Bull Mtn.MONTANA72021
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
ClarkelenWYOMING71978
DaytonWYOMING72024
LindsayMONTANA62016
Cabin CreekMONTANA62023
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA62003
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA62023
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA62018
SundanceWYOMING62024
SchoonoverWYOMING62015
SeelyWYOMING62000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.