BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 651% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+651%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 651% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Wild Turkey In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.94–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.94–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.94–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.832.6
20271.70.862.6
20281.80.892.6
20291.80.912.7
20301.80.942.7

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArvadaWYOMING222024
WyarnoWYOMING192018
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA172025
WebsterMONTANA152025
BrandenbergMONTANA152025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA112025
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA92017
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
BucknumWYOMING92005
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA82024
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA82012
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA82025
Bull Mtn.MONTANA72021
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA72025
ClarkelenWYOMING71978
LindsayMONTANA62016
Miles CityMONTANA62025
Cabin CreekMONTANA62023
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA62003
SundanceWYOMING62024
SchoonoverWYOMING62015
SeelyWYOMING62000
BrusettMONTANA52023
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.