BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

39×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.70 (95% range 0.37–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.70 (95% range 0.37–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.321.00
20270.670.331.0
20280.680.351.0
20290.690.361.0
20300.700.371.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA102011
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA92024
HartlandMINNESOTA82017
WylieMINNESOTA82024
SpartaNEBRASKA82025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA82025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA82008
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA72003
MidwayNEBRASKA62025
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA62021
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA62012
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA52013
FairmontMINNESOTA52025
TenneyMINNESOTA42016
OkleeMINNESOTA42019
BadgerMINNESOTA42018
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA42025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA42008
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA41993
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA42012
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42025
GluekMINNESOTA32013
ClevelandMONTANA31994
NashNORTH-DAKOTA32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.