BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

34×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.69 (95% range 0.35–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.69 (95% range 0.35–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.300.99
20260.660.321.00
20270.670.331.0
20280.680.341.0
20290.690.351.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA172024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA102011
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA92024
HartlandMINNESOTA82017
AppletonMINNESOTA82023
WylieMINNESOTA82024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA82008
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA72010
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA72003
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA62021
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA62012
Redwood FallMINNESOTA52013
TenneyMINNESOTA42016
OkleeMINNESOTA42019
BadgerMINNESOTA42018
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA42008
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA41993
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA42012
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42024
GluekMINNESOTA32013
ClevelandMONTANA31994
NashNORTH-DAKOTA32017
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA32017
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.