BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

34×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Wild Turkey In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.69 (95% range 0.35–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.69 (95% range 0.35–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.300.99
20260.660.321.00
20270.670.331.0
20280.680.341.0
20290.690.351.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA172024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA102011
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA92024
HartlandMINNESOTA82017
AppletonMINNESOTA82023
WylieMINNESOTA82024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA82008
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA72010
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA72003
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA62021
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA62012
Redwood FallMINNESOTA52013
TenneyMINNESOTA42016
OkleeMINNESOTA42019
BadgerMINNESOTA42018
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA42008
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA41993
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA42012
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42024
GluekMINNESOTA32013
ClevelandMONTANA31994
NashNORTH-DAKOTA32017
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA32017
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.