BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 705% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+705%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
274Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 705% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wild Turkey In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.89 (95% range 0.67–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.89 (95% range 0.67–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.601.0
20260.840.621.1
20270.860.631.1
20280.870.651.1
20290.890.671.1

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace NorthMISSISSIPPI142014
HallsboroNORTH-CAROLINA142017
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA122022
HeliconALABAMA112022
LacombeLOUISIANA111967
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA112023
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA112024
ForestonSOUTH-CAROLINA112019
WeirMISSISSIPPI102024
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA102024
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA102021
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA92024
LovelacevileKENTUCKY72024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA72024
MansfieldTENNESSEE72024
Mossy HeadFLORIDA62011
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI62003
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA62024
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA62024
Warrior StdALABAMA52024
Doctor InletFLORIDA52007
BettsFLORIDA52016
CallahanFLORIDA52024
WadleyGEORGIA52024
FolkstonGEORGIA52017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.