BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 705% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+705%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
274Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 705% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.89 (95% range 0.67–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.89 (95% range 0.67–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.601.0
20260.840.621.1
20270.860.631.1
20280.870.651.1
20290.890.671.1

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace NorthMISSISSIPPI142014
HallsboroNORTH-CAROLINA142017
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA122022
HeliconALABAMA112022
LacombeLOUISIANA111967
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA112023
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA112024
ForestonSOUTH-CAROLINA112019
WeirMISSISSIPPI102024
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA102024
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA102021
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA92024
LovelacevileKENTUCKY72024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA72024
MansfieldTENNESSEE72024
Mossy HeadFLORIDA62011
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI62003
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA62024
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA62024
Warrior StdALABAMA52024
Doctor InletFLORIDA52007
BettsFLORIDA52016
CallahanFLORIDA52024
WadleyGEORGIA52024
FolkstonGEORGIA52017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.