BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

22×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.97–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.97–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.97–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.861.9
20261.40.891.9
20271.40.911.9
20281.50.942.0
20291.50.972.0

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CathroMICHIGAN332016
CunardMICHIGAN122021
Ned LakeMICHIGAN112024
PickfordMICHIGAN112024
BootjackMICHIGAN102022
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN101993
FloodwoodMINNESOTA102024
GilmanWISCONSIN102024
BashawWISCONSIN102024
BrainerdMINNESOTA92023
RhinelanderWISCONSIN92023
Sand LakeMICHIGAN72024
ExelandWISCONSIN72024
IrmaWISCONSIN72024
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN62024
CromwellMINNESOTA62024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN52023
RacoMICHIGAN52024
EnsignMICHIGAN52009
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA52023
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN52022
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN42019
DebsMINNESOTA42023
Iron RiverWISCONSIN42023
MareniscoMICHIGAN32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.