BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGame birds

Wild Turkey in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

24×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wild Turkey In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.912.0
20271.50.942.0
20281.50.972.1
20291.51.002.1
20301.61.02.1

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CathroMICHIGAN332016
PickfordMICHIGAN192025
CunardMICHIGAN122021
AmbergWISCONSIN122025
BootjackMICHIGAN102022
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN101993
WausaukeeWISCONSIN102025
HarriettaMICHIGAN92025
BrainerdMINNESOTA92023
RhinelanderWISCONSIN92023
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN82025
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN82025
Iron RiverWISCONSIN82025
ExelandWISCONSIN72024
IrmaWISCONSIN72025
Pine RiverMINNESOTA62025
CavourWISCONSIN62025
Bear LakeMICHIGAN52023
RacoMICHIGAN52024
EnsignMICHIGAN52009
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA52023
BayfieldWISCONSIN52025
GilmanWISCONSIN52025
Rib LakeWISCONSIN52025
Ned LakeMICHIGAN42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.