BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGame birds

Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

24×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.61–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.61–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.810.531.1
20270.830.551.1
20280.850.571.1
20290.870.591.1
20300.890.611.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UmpquaOREGON172025
GreenOREGON152025
CoquilleOREGON122025
Bay ViewWASHINGTON102013
Sams ValleyOREGON92025
LoraneOREGON62025
SantiamOREGON62022
NavarroCALIFORNIA42011
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA42025
Fish RockCALIFORNIA32012
LongvaleCALIFORNIA32023
MccloudCALIFORNIA32021
AlderpointCALIFORNIA32011
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA32015
UkiahCALIFORNIA32011
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA32001
SaladoOREGON32009
ScioOREGON32025
ElktonOREGON32024
ProspectOREGON32024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA22019
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA22025
KorbelCALIFORNIA22024
Days CreekOREGON22024
Secret ValOREGON22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.