BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

23×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.57–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.57–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.501.0
20260.780.521.0
20270.800.541.1
20280.820.551.1
20290.840.571.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UmpquaOREGON242024
Bay ViewWASHINGTON102013
SantiamOREGON62022
NavarroCALIFORNIA42011
Sams ValleyOREGON42024
SelmaOREGON42024
Fish RockCALIFORNIA32012
LongvaleCALIFORNIA32023
MccloudCALIFORNIA32021
AlderpointCALIFORNIA32011
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA32015
UkiahCALIFORNIA32011
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA32001
SaladoOREGON32009
ScioOREGON32022
ElktonOREGON32024
LoraneOREGON32024
ProspectOREGON32024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA22019
KorbelCALIFORNIA22024
Days CreekOREGON22024
Secret ValOREGON22022
GreenOREGON22024
Harlan 2OREGON22023
CarnationWASHINGTON22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.