BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGame birds

Wild Turkey in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 737% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+737%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 737% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wild Turkey In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.541.6
20271.10.551.6
20281.10.571.6
20291.10.581.6
20301.10.601.6

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sunniland GrFLORIDA122019
Wildernes PkFLORIDA102013
KenansvilleFLORIDA92025
IndiantownFLORIDA72016
Babcock RnchFLORIDA71989
NobletonFLORIDA52025
KissimmeeFLORIDA52022
Sandy 2FLORIDA52025
Green SwampFLORIDA52023
Polk CityFLORIDA42025
Devils GardnFLORIDA42024
AripekaFLORIDA42025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA42024
OcalaFLORIDA42024
Dale MabryFLORIDA31984
Myakka HeadFLORIDA32010
SandyFLORIDA32015
St LucieFLORIDA32022
Mabel 2FLORIDA32018
Ridge HarborFLORIDA32022
ChassahowitzFLORIDA32023
BelmoreFLORIDA22024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22023
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22025
PinecrestFLORIDA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.