BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 803% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+803%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 803% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.58–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.58–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.521.6
20261.10.541.6
20271.10.551.6
20281.10.571.6
20291.10.581.6

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sunniland GrFLORIDA122019
Wildernes PkFLORIDA102013
KenansvilleFLORIDA72023
IndiantownFLORIDA72016
Babcock RnchFLORIDA71989
NobletonFLORIDA62019
KissimmeeFLORIDA52022
CrewsvilleFLORIDA52023
Green SwampFLORIDA52023
Devils GardnFLORIDA42024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA42024
OcalaFLORIDA42024
Dale MabryFLORIDA31984
Myakka HeadFLORIDA32010
SandyFLORIDA32015
St LucieFLORIDA32022
Mabel 2FLORIDA32018
Ridge HarborFLORIDA32022
ChassahowitzFLORIDA32023
St AugustineFLORIDA22024
BelmoreFLORIDA22024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22023
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22024
PinecrestFLORIDA22024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.