BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 1000% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+1000%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 1000% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.02.3
20261.71.12.3
20271.71.12.3
20281.81.12.4
20291.81.22.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian SpgsINDIANA192024
ApexKENTUCKY132019
WrigleyTENNESSEE122022
RiverqueenKENTUCKY102024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE102023
BradyvilleTENNESSEE92021
YorkILLINOIS82024
SpencerINDIANA82024
Clear SpringINDIANA72023
PleasurevillKENTUCKY72024
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY72014
CollinwoodTENNESSEE72023
Trace LewisTENNESSEE72016
SwaimALABAMA62024
BelknapILLINOIS62024
GeorgiaINDIANA62024
CyprssINDIANA62024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY62021
PalaceMISSOURI62024
BrownvilleILLINOIS52024
AzaliaINDIANA52013
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY52013
ClementineMISSOURI52002
MarshfieldMISSOURI52023
Osage BeachMISSOURI52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.