BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Coastal California has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

35×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Coastal California: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Coastal California is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Coastal California is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.43.2
20262.41.53.2
20272.41.53.3
20282.51.63.3
20292.51.63.4

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoalingaCALIFORNIA142022
SisquocCALIFORNIA122014
CrestonCALIFORNIA102021
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA102024
Gold HillCALIFORNIA92024
OnealsCALIFORNIA82023
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA82011
FolsomCALIFORNIA72024
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA72019
LockwoodCALIFORNIA62022
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA62024
Mark WestCALIFORNIA52024
Glen Ellen 2CALIFORNIA52022
RumseyCALIFORNIA42008
Morro BayCALIFORNIA42019
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA42022
JacksonCALIFORNIA41992
PolomaCALIFORNIA42024
Glen Ellen 3CALIFORNIA42024
SangerCALIFORNIA32024
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA32024
CoyoteCALIFORNIA32024
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA32024
PescaderoCALIFORNIA32015
Red BluffCALIFORNIA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.