BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Great Basin has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

18×Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Great Basin: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Great Basin is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.17–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Great Basin is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.17–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.130.47
20260.310.140.48
20270.320.150.49
20280.330.160.50
20290.340.170.51

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow VallyNEVADA202024
BakerIDAHO92021
ImnahaOREGON92024
OdessaWASHINGTON92024
NewcastleUTAH82022
PomeroyWASHINGTON82024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA72003
Mt HoodOREGON62013
TwispWASHINGTON62022
LeavenworthWASHINGTON62023
MacdoelCALIFORNIA32019
LakeviewOREGON32013
Hardware RanchUTAH32018
SnowdenWASHINGTON32024
EllensburgWASHINGTON32021
Turnbull NwrWASHINGTON32021
Badger CreekOREGON22024
Oak CityUTAH22006
BerylUTAH22023
ReardanWASHINGTON22024
WilburWASHINGTON22024
NighthawkWASHINGTON22022
MaldenWASHINGTON22024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON21992
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.