BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGame birds

Wild Turkey in Great Basin has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

16×Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Great Basin is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.17–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Great Basin is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.17–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.130.47
20270.310.140.48
20280.320.150.49
20290.330.160.50
20300.340.170.51

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BakerIDAHO92021
ImnahaOREGON92024
SnowdenWASHINGTON92025
NewcastleUTAH82022
NighthawkWASHINGTON82025
PomeroyWASHINGTON82024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA72003
Mt HoodOREGON62013
TwispWASHINGTON62022
LeavenworthWASHINGTON62023
MacdoelCALIFORNIA32019
LakeviewOREGON32013
PromontoryUTAH32025
Hardware RanchUTAH32018
EllensburgWASHINGTON32021
Turnbull NwrWASHINGTON32021
Badger CreekOREGON22024
Oak CityUTAH22006
WilburWASHINGTON22024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON21992
LikelyCALIFORNIA12025
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA11998
BartleCALIFORNIA12021
TionestaCALIFORNIA12006
GiffordIDAHO12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.