BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Northern Rockies has surged: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+377%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Northern Rockies: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Wild Turkey In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.29–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.29–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.250.74
20270.510.260.75
20280.520.270.76
20290.530.280.77
20300.540.290.79

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonyWYOMING232017
ChewelahWASHINGTON142021
NinemileMONTANA112025
NorthportWASHINGTON72025
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON72021
NaplesIDAHO62025
NezperceIDAHO62007
CloverlandWASHINGTON62025
OttoWYOMING62015
Crazy WomanWYOMING52009
MivodenIDAHO42025
Deer ParkWASHINGTON42015
CentervilleIDAHO32025
CoolinIDAHO32025
KalispellMONTANA32025
WoodmanMONTANA32025
Fish CreekMONTANA32021
WickiupOREGON32022
KellerWASHINGTON32007
NowoodWYOMING32025
GrangevilleIDAHO22022
Crane CreekIDAHO22013
St RegisMONTANA22021
ArleeMONTANA22011
Thompson RivMONTANA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.