BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+196%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.40 (95% range 0.17–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.40 (95% range 0.17–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.140.60
20260.380.150.61
20270.380.150.61
20280.390.160.62
20290.400.170.63

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LudlowCOLORADO172016
HannaUTAH162024
De BequeCOLORADO122024
BufordCOLORADO72022
UncompahgreCOLORADO62024
Moquith MtnUTAH62015
Douglas PassCOLORADO52018
Wet Mtns.COLORADO52022
Baxter PassCOLORADO52016
AnethUTAH52024
ShivwitzUTAH52023
La Sal 3UTAH52023
WalsenburgCOLORADO42023
KamasUTAH42018
EscalanteUTAH42022
Deadman Rd.COLORADO32023
FlattopsCOLORADO32019
CokedaleCOLORADO32018
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO32018
Animas 2COLORADO32018
GallinasNEW-MEXICO32021
CapulinNEW-MEXICO31993
BeaverUTAH31999
Fletcher PkWYOMING32017
Cheesman LkCOLORADO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.