BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGame birds

Wild Turkey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+153%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Wild Turkey In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.17–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.17–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.370.140.60
20270.380.150.61
20280.390.160.61
20290.390.160.62
20300.400.170.63

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LudlowCOLORADO172016
HannaUTAH162024
De BequeCOLORADO122024
Fletcher PkWYOMING102025
JensenUTAH72025
Moquith MtnUTAH62015
Douglas PassCOLORADO52018
UncompahgreCOLORADO52025
Wet Mtns.COLORADO52022
Baxter PassCOLORADO52016
ShivwitzUTAH52023
La Sal 3UTAH52023
WalsenburgCOLORADO42023
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO42025
KamasUTAH42018
EscalanteUTAH42022
FlattopsCOLORADO32019
CokedaleCOLORADO32018
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO32018
Animas 2COLORADO32018
GallinasNEW-MEXICO32021
CapulinNEW-MEXICO31993
BeaverUTAH31999
Alton 2UTAH32025
Dry ParkARIZONA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.