BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 157× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

157×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 157× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.8–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.54.9
20263.82.65.0
20273.92.65.1
20283.92.75.2
20294.02.85.2

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HudsonWISCONSIN302024
GreshamWISCONSIN302024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN202024
GalesburgMICHIGAN192024
CohoctahMICHIGAN172024
HoltMICHIGAN162024
NashvilleMICHIGAN152024
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN152024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN142024
PrincetonWISCONSIN142024
KielWISCONSIN132022
No BradleyMICHIGAN122024
New BuffaloMICHIGAN122014
CumberlandWISCONSIN122024
Beaver DamWISCONSIN122023
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA112024
UnityWISCONSIN112024
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN112024
St StephenMINNESOTA102008
MontereyMICHIGAN92024
LapeerMICHIGAN92024
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN92019
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA92024
DresserWISCONSIN92023
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.