BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+69%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has risen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.66
20260.260.000.66
20270.270.000.66
20280.270.000.67
20290.270.000.67

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DundeeMISSISSIPPI92022
River RoadLOUISIANA62011
PawpawTENNESSEE52009
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI42023
HarrisburgARKANSAS32019
Port AllenLOUISIANA32006
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI32015
SaffellARKANSAS22019
GillettARKANSAS22024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22024
RamahLOUISIANA22014
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA22024
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI22011
HughesARKANSAS12023
West TylerARKANSAS11983
South BendARKANSAS12005
BardwellKENTUCKY11994
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12017
RoselandLOUISIANA11977
ShawLOUISIANA12008
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12009
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA12024
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11989
TippoMISSISSIPPI12024
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.