BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+251%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Wild Turkey In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.47 (95% range 0.22–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.47 (95% range 0.22–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.180.69
20260.450.190.70
20270.460.200.71
20280.460.210.72
20290.470.220.73

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrincheraCOLORADO182019
PaxtonNEBRASKA162016
Kiowa 2COLORADO132024
RankinTEXAS102017
CrawfordNEBRASKA92024
RuletonKANSAS62011
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA62022
YoderWYOMING62021
LingleWYOMING62021
ChugwaterWYOMING62024
Pine BluffWYOMING61996
WaverlyCOLORADO52019
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO51996
NeegrandeCOLORADO52019
Fort MorganCOLORADO52023
ElbertCOLORADO52024
NinaviewCOLORADO42023
Murray LakeNEBRASKA42022
FloydNEW-MEXICO42015
PostTEXAS42024
StilesTEXAS42017
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO32021
AbarrCOLORADO22016
BoyeroCOLORADO22009
Gordon CreekCOLORADO22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.