BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGame birds

Wild Turkey in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+337%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Wild Turkey In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.23–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.23–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.190.70
20270.450.200.71
20280.460.210.71
20290.470.220.72
20300.480.230.73

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA162016
Kiowa 2COLORADO132024
Fort MorganCOLORADO122025
RankinTEXAS102017
CrawfordNEBRASKA82025
RuletonKANSAS62011
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA62022
YoderWYOMING62021
LingleWYOMING62021
ChugwaterWYOMING62024
Pine BluffWYOMING61996
WaverlyCOLORADO52019
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO51996
NeegrandeCOLORADO52019
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA52025
TrincheraCOLORADO42025
NinaviewCOLORADO42023
Murray LakeNEBRASKA42022
FloydNEW-MEXICO42015
PostTEXAS42024
StilesTEXAS42017
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO32021
AbarrCOLORADO22016
BoyeroCOLORADO22009
Gordon CreekCOLORADO22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.