BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 83× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

83×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 83× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.922.1
20261.50.962.1
20271.60.992.1
20281.61.02.2
20291.61.12.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AndoverMAINE152021
RomeMAINE132023
S HoriconNEW-YORK132016
InletNEW-YORK102017
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
CornvilleMAINE72022
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE72021
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
HighmarketNEW-YORK62024
GreenwoodMAINE52019
DebloisMAINE52007
Northfield 2MAINE52022
StacyvilleMAINE52023
SearsportMAINE52023
BrownfieldMAINE52009
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS52024
SciotaNEW-YORK51998
S WallingfrdVERMONT52022
GreensboroVERMONT52022
Newbury 2VERMONT52023
StoweVERMONT52024
FreedomMAINE42022
CastineMAINE42005
Lake MoxieMAINE42022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.