BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+54%Since 1971
20Routes In Region
29Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Wild Turkey has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029
0.41Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.095% range
±34.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.400.001.0
20260.400.001.0
20270.400.001.0
20280.400.001.0
20290.410.001.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Sierra Madre Occidental.
AlpineARIZONA82022
PomereneARIZONA52024
PatagoniaARIZONA42024
WilliamsARIZONA42011
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA42016
Peña BlancaARIZONA31999
Mormon LakeARIZONA21971
Happy JackARIZONA22006
FlagstaffARIZONA12006
BlueARIZONA11981
PinetopARIZONA12017
RedingtonARIZONA12023
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12022
McnealARIZONA12022
SprucedaleARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12005
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.