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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+54%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wild Turkey In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.001.0
20260.400.001.0
20270.400.001.0
20280.400.001.0
20290.410.001.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA82022
PomereneARIZONA52024
PatagoniaARIZONA42024
WilliamsARIZONA42011
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA42016
Peña BlancaARIZONA31999
Mormon LakeARIZONA21971
Happy JackARIZONA22006
FlagstaffARIZONA12006
BlueARIZONA11981
PinetopARIZONA12017
RedingtonARIZONA12023
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12022
McnealARIZONA12022
SprucedaleARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12005
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.