BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

35×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
224Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.61.12.2
20261.71.12.2
20271.71.22.2
20281.71.22.3
20291.81.22.3

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RensselaerINDIANA152024
GretnaNEBRASKA142018
IrvingtonNEBRASKA142024
DoverKANSAS132022
WrefordKANSAS132024
WarrenMISSOURI131980
LucerneMISSOURI132021
Kankakee SandsINDIANA122024
CubaINDIANA92024
PawneeILLINOIS82023
Mt VernonILLINOIS82014
MarshallILLINOIS82024
BarclayKANSAS82024
New HamptonMISSOURI82024
JohnsonNEBRASKA82024
Mill CreekILLINOIS72024
BedfordIOWA72018
LincolnvilleKANSAS72024
FilleyMISSOURI72024
MadisonMISSOURI72022
MoreheadKANSAS62024
OlsburgKANSAS62024
TarkioMISSOURI61979
McfallMISSOURI62024
ClarksdaleILLINOIS52023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.