BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGame birds

Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

34×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
226Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.12.2
20271.71.12.2
20281.71.12.2
20291.71.22.3
20301.81.22.3

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GretnaNEBRASKA142018
DoverKANSAS132022
WrefordKANSAS132024
WarrenMISSOURI131980
GeraldMISSOURI132025
ExlineIOWA122025
ReeceKANSAS112025
MarshallILLINOIS92025
CubaINDIANA92024
RensselaerINDIANA92025
PawneeILLINOIS82023
Red RockIOWA82025
JohnsonNEBRASKA82025
RaymondWISCONSIN82025
BedfordIOWA72018
LincolnvilleKANSAS72024
MadisonMISSOURI72022
House SpringsMISSOURI72025
BarclayKANSAS62025
BucyrusKANSAS62025
TarkioMISSOURI61979
LucerneMISSOURI62025
IrvingtonNEBRASKA62025
ClarksdaleILLINOIS52023
BradburyILLINOIS52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.