BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-9%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.001.1
20260.530.001.1
20270.530.001.2
20280.540.001.2
20290.540.001.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO82024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO62021
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO42022
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO31995
Hot SpringsTEXAS31968
Dove Mtn.TEXAS32004
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22016
LongfellowTEXAS22018
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12015
PinonNEW-MEXICO12015
ComstockTEXAS12023
Black GapTEXAS12019
GirvinTEXAS12012
OzonaTEXAS12021
Bear MtnTEXAS12015
Devils R CynTEXAS12023
ToyahvaleTEXAS12024
MarathonTEXAS12019
PumpvilleTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.