BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Wild Turkey in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 94× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

94×Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 94× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.52.7
20262.21.62.8
20272.21.62.8
20282.31.72.9
20292.31.72.9

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Wild Turkey in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY132012
PepperboxDELAWARE102016
Cape NeddickMAINE102023
IndiantownMARYLAND102014
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS102019
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS102019
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY92022
Kittery PtMAINE82024
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT72023
MatthewsMARYLAND72024
CokesburyMARYLAND72024
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY72024
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE62024
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY62024
WinslowNEW-JERSEY62022
QuinbyVIRGINIA62022
MysticCONNECTICUT52022
MillsboroDELAWARE52024
MardelaMARYLAND52019
Furnace TownMARYLAND52024
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND52023
WalnutMARYLAND52024
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS52024
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE52023
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.