BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

27×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
342Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 1.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 1.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.911.4
20261.20.931.5
20271.20.951.5
20281.20.981.5
20291.31.001.5

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RushPENNSYLVANIA122024
BowdenWEST-VIRGINIA122022
Star TanneryVIRGINIA111988
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA102023
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA102015
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA92019
OdenvilleALABAMA82023
RichwoodWEST-VIRGINIA72016
KymulgaALABAMA62023
WilgusOHIO62009
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA62021
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA62023
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA62023
St CollegePENNSYLVANIA62024
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE62023
Signal MtnTENNESSEE62024
RockportWEST-VIRGINIA62021
OneontaALABAMA52019
ShannonGEORGIA52019
Potomac ParkMARYLAND52024
MedusaNEW-YORK52023
Whitney PtNEW-YORK52022
East JavaNEW-YORK52022
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA52021
StonecreekOHIO52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.