BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGame birds

Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 30× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

30×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
343Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 1.0–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 1.0–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.941.5
20271.20.961.5
20281.30.991.5
20291.31.01.5
20301.31.01.6

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wayne N.F.OHIO192025
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA182025
BowdenWEST-VIRGINIA122022
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA102023
Signal MtnTENNESSEE102025
Natural BridVIRGINIA102025
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA102015
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA92025
Star TanneryVIRGINIA92025
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA92019
N WashingtonPENNSYLVANIA82025
JenningsMARYLAND72025
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA72025
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA72025
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA72025
RichwoodWEST-VIRGINIA72016
KymulgaALABAMA62023
CarterKENTUCKY62025
WilgusOHIO62009
LynchPENNSYLVANIA62025
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA62025
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA62021
SheloctaPENNSYLVANIA62025
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE62023
OneontaALABAMA52019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.