BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Tamaulipan Brushlands has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has risen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±155.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.003.2
20261.50.003.3
20271.50.003.3
20281.60.003.3
20291.60.003.3

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La PryorTEXAS151971
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS91995
HondoTEXAS82024
RaymondvilleTEXAS82024
Mirando CityTEXAS62024
MillettTEXAS42012
EncinalTEXAS32007
Millett 2TEXAS32017
RachalTEXAS22021
Agua NuevaTEXAS12023
KingsvilleTEXAS12024
RandadoTEXAS12005
George WestTEXAS12024
CatarinaTEXAS12009
El IndioTEXAS12007
El SauzTEXAS12015
Catarina 2TEXAS12017
DilleyTEXAS12024
GuerraTEXAS12008
Encinal 2TEXAS12024
Catarina 3TEXAS12019
SejitaTEXAS12021
Pedro CreekTEXAS12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.