BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

16×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.98–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.98–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.862.2
20261.60.892.2
20271.60.922.3
20281.60.952.3
20291.70.982.3

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK212024
BristolVERMONT122018
ColchesterVERMONT102017
OneidaNEW-YORK92010
CrescentNEW-YORK62024
W ShokanNEW-YORK52018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK52019
ClintonNEW-YORK52013
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK52023
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA52022
SheridanNEW-YORK42024
HopkintonNEW-YORK42021
LucerneOHIO42015
HinesburgVERMONT41992
TrumansburgNEW-YORK32024
MendonNEW-YORK32024
CastileNEW-YORK32008
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK32024
PulaskiNEW-YORK32024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK31998
North EastonNEW-YORK32016
WaddingtonNEW-YORK31998
BalmatNEW-YORK32008
PittsfieldOHIO32024
Valley CityOHIO32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.