BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Wild Turkey in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+132%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 150% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.11–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+150%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 150% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.11–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.090.56
20260.330.100.56
20270.330.100.57
20280.340.100.57
20290.340.110.58

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Wild Turkey in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA82019
StampsARKANSAS42013
Derry 2LOUISIANA42024
LockesburgARKANSAS32018
LinvilleLOUISIANA32023
BlancoOKLAHOMA32003
MatoyOKLAHOMA31992
RamseyARKANSAS21987
Locust BayouARKANSAS22017
StarkARKANSAS21993
Magazine MtnARKANSAS22019
Four LakesARKANSAS22001
FishvilleLOUISIANA22012
CanadianOKLAHOMA22013
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22024
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA22019
Old MiloARKANSAS12009
HopeARKANSAS12003
AshdownARKANSAS12019
HollywoodARKANSAS12022
WaldronARKANSAS12017
HavanaARKANSAS12010
SimsARKANSAS12024
SpringhillARKANSAS12010
StephensARKANSAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.