BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGame birds

Wild Turkey in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+347%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Wild Turkey In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.48 (95% range 0.12–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.48 (95% range 0.12–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.070.81
20270.450.080.81
20280.460.090.83
20290.470.100.84
20300.480.120.85

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA52005
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA52025
WawonaCALIFORNIA42023
StrawberryCALIFORNIA42014
Silver CityCALIFORNIA32010
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA32023
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA22013
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12012
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12015
LumberyardCALIFORNIA12025
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA12025
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12025
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.