BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+266%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 345% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.09–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+345%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 345% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.09–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.050.80
20260.440.060.81
20270.450.070.82
20280.460.080.83
20290.470.090.84

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonCALIFORNIA62014
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA52005
WawonaCALIFORNIA42023
StrawberryCALIFORNIA42014
Silver CityCALIFORNIA32010
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA32023
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA22023
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA22013
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12012
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12015
LumberyardCALIFORNIA12007
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12024
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.