BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 800% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+800%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 800% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wild Turkey In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.72–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.72–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.632.2
20271.40.662.2
20281.50.682.2
20291.50.702.3
20301.50.722.3

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS142025
SchroederTEXAS81996
MuldoonTEXAS72015
HenriettaTEXAS72008
DuranTEXAS71999
CampbelltonTEXAS62018
FanninTEXAS62025
NobleOKLAHOMA52025
CayugaTEXAS52017
MegargelTEXAS52024
BeggsOKLAHOMA42022
AlbanyTEXAS42021
SadlerTEXAS42025
OlneyTEXAS42018
Whit Mtn.TEXAS42019
Arenosa CrkTEXAS32021
GrafordTEXAS32019
LydiaTEXAS32011
YoakumTEXAS32025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA22009
TatumsOKLAHOMA22024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22025
CottonwoodTEXAS22025
WalburgTEXAS22024
Thornton 2TEXAS22003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.