BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Piedmont has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

15×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Piedmont: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Piedmont is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.52–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Piedmont is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.52–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.470.92
20260.710.480.93
20270.720.500.95
20280.730.510.96
20290.750.520.97

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA92022
ChesneeSOUTH-CAROLINA82015
ElamsvilleVIRGINIA82006
LanettALABAMA72024
Liberty City 2ALABAMA72024
Liberty CityALABAMA62008
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA52021
LincolntonGEORGIA42017
BaldwinGEORGIA42021
EkloMARYLAND42018
AndersonSOUTH-CAROLINA42015
HallVIRGINIA42023
RutledgeGEORGIA32021
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA32021
FlayNORTH-CAROLINA32022
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA32018
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA32024
DavidVIRGINIA32011
AthensGEORGIA22024
BowdonGEORGIA22014
WhitesburgGEORGIA22023
EarltonMARYLAND22022
CrotonNEW-JERSEY22003
Croton 2NEW-JERSEY22024
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.