BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Finch

FringillidaeForest birdsHaemorhous purpureus

Purple Finch has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
912RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Purple Finch

The Purple Finch (Haemorhous purpureus) is a North American member of the Finches (Fringillidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6.5 in long (11–16 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 912 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 21 states, most concentrated in the Atlantic Northern Forest.
Family
Fringillidae · Forest birds

Notable Purple Finch TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Finch has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Finch Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.06–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.06–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.100.44
20260.260.090.43
20270.250.080.42
20280.240.070.41
20290.230.060.40

Where the Purple Finch Is Detected

BBS routes recording Purple Finch, sized by most recent count.

Purple Finch Population Trend by State

Purple Finch population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaskainsufficient datan/a1
California-23%1970159
Connecticut-91%196819
Indianainsufficient datan/a2
Maine-84%196878
Maryland+412%19778
Massachusetts-84%196829
Michigan-29%196870
Minnesota-2%196949
New Hampshire-65%196826
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a2
New York-54%1968122
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a2
Ohio+12%196917
Oregon-78%197080
Pennsylvania-45%196886
Rhode Island-81%19686
Vermont-68%196826
Washington-31%197058
West Virginia-57%197214
Wisconsin-26%196858

Purple Finch Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Purple Finch population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-66%1970123
Great Basin+41%197057
Northern Rockies-79%198711
Prairie Potholes-64%197610
Boreal Hardwood Transition-30%1968124
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-58%196879
Atlantic Northern Forest-71%1968156
Sierra Nevada-70%197036
Prairie Hardwood Transition-34%196844
Appalachian Mountains-40%1968143
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-88%196854
Coastal California+22%197069

Purple Finch Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 50% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.