BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Finch Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Purple Finch in Minnesota has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Finch Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Finch in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Purple Finch Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Minnesota is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Minnesota is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.94
20260.300.000.93
20270.290.000.92
20280.280.000.91
20290.260.000.90

Purple Finch Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Purple Finch in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bemidji1419801979
Lockport920241967
Jordan620231993
Hart Lake520241967
Beltrami519981975
Hovland420241973
Sawbill Lndg420241974
Sawbill Camp420241993
Wigwam Bay320211974
Island Lake319931967
Debs320241969
Crane Lake320241969
Mahtowa320231993
Tamarac Nwr220161991
Nebish220231982
Princeton220051995
Mille Lacs220181968
Pine River220031967
Evergreen220231969
Floodwood220241967
Lude220211979
Waskish220231981
Babbitt220181998
Red Lake220191993
Greenbush220072007

Purple Finch Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaconnecticutindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.