BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Finch Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Purple Finch in Minnesota has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Finch Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Finch in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Purple Finch Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Minnesota is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Minnesota is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.310.000.94
20270.290.000.92
20280.280.000.91
20290.270.000.90
20300.260.000.89

Purple Finch Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Purple Finch in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bemidji1419801979
Lockport520251967
Beltrami519981975
Hovland420241973
Wigwam Bay320211974
Island Lake319931967
Crane Lake320241969
Waskish320251981
Mahtowa320231993
Jordan320251993
Glendale320251993
Tamarac Nwr220161991
Princeton220051995
Mille Lacs220181968
Pine River220031967
Hart Lake220251967
Floodwood220241967
Lude220211979
Sawbill Camp220251993
Babbitt220181998
Greenbush220072007
Ash Creek119781978
Arlington119781978
Cass Lake120121980
Nebish120251982

Purple Finch Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaconnecticutindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.