BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Finch Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Purple Finch in New York has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Finch Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Finch has fallen sharply in New York: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Finch Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in New York is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.37–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in New York is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.37–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.451.6
20261.00.431.6
20270.980.411.6
20280.960.391.5
20290.940.371.5

Purple Finch Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Purple Finch in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blue Ridge S1720101969
Dexter Lake1219751968
Westhampton1119951987
Inlet1120171979
Mcdonough620171971
Swain620071967
Speculator620241966
Cattaraugus520191969
Cicero Ctr520221966
Catskills420071973
Durham419741966
Platte Cove420181968
Laurens420221970
Romulus419971997
Dryden420241966
Rushville420182005
E Youngstown420231969
Tupper Lake419741968
Underwood419961969
Huntington319811978
Petersburg320181966
Meridale320241967
Oxford319761967
E Newark320231967
East Java320231967

Purple Finch Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaconnecticutindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.