BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Finch Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Purple Finch in New York has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Finch Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Finch has fallen sharply in New York: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Finch Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.92 (95% range 0.35–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.92 (95% range 0.35–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.990.421.6
20270.970.411.5
20280.950.391.5
20290.940.371.5
20300.920.351.5

Purple Finch Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Purple Finch in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blue Ridge S1720101969
Dexter Lake1219751968
Westhampton1119951987
Inlet1120171979
Mcdonough620171971
Swain620071967
Cattaraugus520191969
Cicero Ctr520221966
Catskills420071973
Durham419741966
Platte Cove420181968
Laurens420221970
Romulus419971997
Rushville420182005
East Java420251967
Parishville420251972
Tupper Lake419741968
Underwood419961969
Naples420251966
S Berne 2420252014
Huntington319811978
Petersburg320181966
Oxford319761967
Nashville320181968
Oneida320091968

Purple Finch Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaconnecticutindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.