BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Finch In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Purple Finch in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Finch has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Finch In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.3
20260.990.002.3
20270.910.002.2
20280.840.002.1
20290.760.002.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Purple Finch in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE231981
Pillsbury PdMAINE231968
BaxterMAINE181984
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK172010
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK121975
Carrying PlMAINE112024
InletNEW-YORK112017
Seboomook LkMAINE102014
Priestly Br.MAINE102013
LudlowMAINE81998
Big Twenty 2MAINE82009
HancockMAINE62024
Clayton LakeMAINE62001
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS62014
SpeculatorNEW-YORK62024
WatervilleVERMONT61980
East TroyMAINE52018
CharlestonMAINE52017
WaiteMAINE51977
Baker Lake 2MAINE52013
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
BentonMAINE41980
WashburnMAINE42005
TopsfieldMAINE41996
HancockMASSACHUSETTS42015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.