BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Finch In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Purple Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Purple Finch In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.16
20260.060.000.15
20270.060.000.15
20280.060.000.15
20290.060.000.15

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Purple Finch in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DresserWISCONSIN42012
TyreMICHIGAN31978
BismarkOHIO31987
PrincetonMINNESOTA22005
EvergreenMINNESOTA22023
MerrillWISCONSIN22024
StratfordWISCONSIN22012
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN22022
GreshamWISCONSIN22024
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12017
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12022
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11988
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN12012
BeldingMICHIGAN12003
RemusMICHIGAN12024
No BradleyMICHIGAN12014
OlaMICHIGAN12016
JuniataMICHIGAN12010
DeckervilleMICHIGAN12004
HungerfordMICHIGAN12024
Belding 2MICHIGAN12013
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN12016
EdwardsMINNESOTA12016
Brook ParkMINNESOTA12007
LoraineWISCONSIN12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.