BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Finch In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Purple Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Finch has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Purple Finch In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.004.5
20271.80.004.4
20281.70.004.3
20291.60.004.2
20301.60.004.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Purple Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Port AngelesWASHINGTON282025
IlwacoWASHINGTON222025
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA182025
Warm BeachWASHINGTON162017
RainierWASHINGTON162025
LoraneOREGON152025
South ElmaWASHINGTON142024
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON132025
TaholahWASHINGTON122022
Mendota 3WASHINGTON122025
HauserOREGON111985
DaytonOREGON112025
McchordWASHINGTON112015
HoneydewCALIFORNIA102017
Lobster CreekOREGON102025
EverettWASHINGTON102025
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON92025
OzetteWASHINGTON92025
IssaquahWASHINGTON91987
ScioOREGON82025
GlasgowOREGON82025
CoquilleOREGON72025
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON72024
HolmesCALIFORNIA62025
HullvilleCALIFORNIA62019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.