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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Finch In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Purple Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Finch has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Purple Finch In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.004.4
20261.70.004.3
20271.60.004.2
20281.50.004.1
20291.50.004.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Purple Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IlwacoWASHINGTON172024
Warm BeachWASHINGTON162017
RainierWASHINGTON162019
South ElmaWASHINGTON142024
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON142024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON132024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA122024
CoquilleOREGON122024
TaholahWASHINGTON122022
HauserOREGON111985
McchordWASHINGTON112015
HoneydewCALIFORNIA102017
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA102024
IssaquahWASHINGTON91987
CarnationWASHINGTON82024
Mendota 3WASHINGTON82024
HolmesCALIFORNIA72024
Secret ValOREGON72022
EverettWASHINGTON72024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON72024
HullvilleCALIFORNIA62019
NavarroCALIFORNIA62009
UkiahCALIFORNIA62011
Sandy RiverOREGON62006
Bunker HillWASHINGTON62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.