BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Finch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Purple Finch in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Finch in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Purple Finch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.10–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.10–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.100.43
20270.260.100.42
20280.260.100.42
20290.260.100.42
20300.260.100.42

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Purple Finch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA102021
McdonoughNEW-YORK62017
SwainNEW-YORK62007
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA62025
CattaraugusNEW-YORK52019
DurhamNEW-YORK41974
Platte CoveNEW-YORK42018
LaurensNEW-YORK42022
East JavaNEW-YORK42025
S Berne 2NEW-YORK42025
OxfordNEW-YORK31976
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA32022
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA32022
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA32025
Accident 2MARYLAND22025
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY21980
RiftonNEW-YORK21984
MedusaNEW-YORK22019
CooperstownNEW-YORK21977
MeridaleNEW-YORK22025
CobleskillNEW-YORK22023
S BerneNEW-YORK22013
CoventryvileNEW-YORK22015
E NewarkNEW-YORK22025
S VandaliaNEW-YORK22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.