BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Finch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Purple Finch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Finch has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Finch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±222.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Finch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.28
20260.000.000.28
20270.000.000.28
20280.000.000.28
20290.000.000.28

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Purple Finch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WesthamptonNEW-YORK111995
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS61981
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS62015
WoodstockCONNECTICUT41987
WarrenCONNECTICUT42011
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS31979
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS32024
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS31995
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE32021
HuntingtonNEW-YORK31981
WestbrookCONNECTICUT21992
ShermanCONNECTICUT22008
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT21995
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT21984
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS22005
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND21992
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND21988
MysticCONNECTICUT12002
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11991
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT11979
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT12008
WillimanticCONNECTICUT12005
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT12022
GreenwichCONNECTICUT11976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.