BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon Population Analysis

FalconidaeBirds of preyFalco mexicanus

Prairie Falcon has surged: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+395%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
700RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Prairie Falcon

The Prairie Falcon (Falco mexicanus) is a North American member of the Falcons & Caracaras (Falconidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
10–23.5 in long (25–60 cm) — a streamlined raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 700 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 18 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Falconidae · Birds of prey

Notable Prairie Falcon TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.03–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.03–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.030.05
20270.040.030.05
20280.040.030.05
20290.040.030.05
20300.040.030.05

Where the Prairie Falcon Is Detected

BBS routes recording Prairie Falcon, sized by most recent count.

Prairie Falcon Population Trend by State

Prairie Falcon population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-45%197342
California+21%197278
Colorado-65%197586
Idaho+72%198434
Kansasinsufficient datan/a7
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a2
Montana-51%197354
Nebraska-28%199211
Nevada-35%197245
New Mexico-82%197641
North Dakota-52%197311
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a4
Oregon+134%197357
South Dakota+8%197518
Texas-53%197613
Utah-41%197480
Washington-26%197619
Wyoming-45%197898

Prairie Falcon Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Prairie Falcon population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin+127%1971183
Northern Rockies+118%1974109
Prairie Potholes-12%198113
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+16%1973118
Badlands and Prairies-39%197280
Shortgrass Prairie-51%197372
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-34%197210
Coastal California+313%197528
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-73%197146
Sierra Madre Occidental-71%197617
Chihuahuan Desert-74%198116

Prairie Falcon Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 395% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.