Prairie Falcon
Prairie Falcon has surged: up 372% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
About the Prairie Falcon
The Prairie Falcon (Falco mexicanus) is a North American member of the Falcons & Caracaras (Falconidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.
- Size
- 10–23.5 in long (25–60 cm) — a streamlined raptor (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
- Diet
- Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
- Range
- Recorded on 690 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 18 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
- Family
- Falconidae · Birds of prey
Notable Prairie Falcon Trends
No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon. See the full index history below.
Prairie Falcon Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.03–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| 2026 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| 2027 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| 2028 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| 2029 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
Where the Prairie Falcon Is Detected
BBS routes recording Prairie Falcon, sized by most recent count.
Prairie Falcon Population Trend by State
| Arizona | -13% | 1973 | 41 |
| California | +17% | 1972 | 76 |
| Colorado | -67% | 1975 | 85 |
| Idaho | +69% | 1984 | 33 |
| Kansas | insufficient data | n/a | 7 |
| Minnesota | insufficient data | n/a | 2 |
| Montana | -42% | 1973 | 53 |
| Nebraska | -28% | 1992 | 11 |
| Nevada | -15% | 1972 | 45 |
| New Mexico | -86% | 1976 | 41 |
| North Dakota | -52% | 1973 | 11 |
| Oklahoma | insufficient data | n/a | 4 |
| Oregon | +174% | 1973 | 57 |
| South Dakota | +24% | 1975 | 18 |
| Texas | -53% | 1976 | 13 |
| Utah | -55% | 1974 | 78 |
| Washington | -27% | 1976 | 18 |
| Wyoming | -34% | 1978 | 97 |
Prairie Falcon Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| Great Basin | +103% | 1971 | 180 |
| Northern Rockies | +146% | 1974 | 108 |
| Prairie Potholes | -14% | 1981 | 12 |
| Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau | +33% | 1973 | 117 |
| Badlands and Prairies | -42% | 1972 | 79 |
| Shortgrass Prairie | -25% | 1973 | 72 |
| Central Mixed Grass Prairie | -34% | 1972 | 10 |
| Coastal California | +224% | 1975 | 26 |
| Sonoran and Mojave Deserts | -73% | 1971 | 46 |
| Sierra Madre Occidental | -75% | 1976 | 16 |
| Chihuahuan Desert | -74% | 1981 | 16 |
Prairie Falcon Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 372% since 1970.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.