BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+33%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.15
20260.070.000.15
20270.070.000.15
20280.070.000.15
20290.070.000.15

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Castle ButteARIZONA32007
Wray GulchCOLORADO32005
DragertonUTAH31998
BonanzaUTAH32013
M Warner ResUTAH32023
BufordWYOMING32017
GreasewoodARIZONA21996
MoffatCOLORADO22021
BlancaCOLORADO21981
AlamosaCOLORADO22015
PiedraCOLORADO22012
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO22011
CrownpointNEW-MEXICO21995
TorreonNEW-MEXICO22008
CorreoNEW-MEXICO21976
GallinasNEW-MEXICO22003
SanosteeNEW-MEXICO22023
BeaverUTAH21994
AnethUTAH22009
Uintah NfUTAH21990
JensenUTAH22012
NotomUTAH22019
CanyonlandsUTAH22004
Rose WellsARIZONA11970
OraibiARIZONA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.