BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Nevada

All statesBirds of prey

Prairie Falcon in Nevada has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-35%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Nevada is projected to rise about 157% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+157%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in Nevada is projected to rise about 157% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.000.57
20270.250.000.57
20280.250.000.57
20290.240.000.56
20300.240.000.56

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dinner Sta419931973
Virgin Creek420182000
Calico Spr219741972
Sutcliffe219711971
Majors Place220171989
Gardnerville219951992
Gardnerville 2220152015
Vya119741970
Piute Mdws120162005
Midas120251974
Ranchogrande120241990
Sand Pass120211990
Rye Patch119871987
Fish Creek120211997
Cortez120222018
Walker Can120061984
Mizpah120241997
Frenchman119781973
Toiyabe Nf120171987
Eureka120131973
Illipah120141992
Thorne119731970
Desert Nwr120142007
Dobbin Creek120161995
Willis120242000

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.