BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in South Dakota has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+24%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Falcon in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19712027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.12
20240.030.000.12
20250.030.000.12
20260.030.000.12
20270.030.000.12

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
French Creek320051999
White River219981998
Cedar Pass120021980
Fort Pierre119751975
Maurine120161971
Reva120191990
Pioneer120122006
Cottonwood120112011
Rockyford120191990
Ardmore119891989
Badlands119851983
Lacreek120132013
Indian120162016
Railroad Butte120222022
Wind Cave Np120082006
Promise119961996
Volunteer119721972
Harding119961976

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.