BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Prairie Falcon in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-52%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Falcon Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Falcon has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Prairie Falcon Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Falcon in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.030.000.07
20200.030.000.07
20210.030.000.07
20220.030.000.06
20230.030.000.06

Prairie Falcon Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Prairie Falcon in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roosevelt Pk120171987
Cedar Creek119781978
Carson119991999
Bentley119991999
Glen Ullin120012001
Ft Yates119761976
Dickinson120181974
Dunn Center119801973
Lark119721972
Bowman120041969
Zap120001997

Prairie Falcon Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.